June 4, 2026
Narrative and Identity
Understanding The Disaffected Electorate
Description
Building on more than 5 years of research and learning, we have found that across race, age, and geography, frustration with politics is rising. This disillusionment and cynicism impacted engagement in 2024 and remain a threat to civic participation in 2026 and beyond.
Authors
Sojourn Strategies
Ariel Research Partners
source

The research defines the disaffected as people with low trust in government and deep disillusionment with politics and civic life. They are less likely to vote and less likely to believe they have the power to influence change in their communities — but they haven’t checked out. 

The disaffected remain just as engaged as the general population in civic life beyond voting. They are talking to their friends and family about policy and politics, sharing information online, and supporting people in their community. They are rejecting transactional engagement but respond to organizing approaches that offer a sense of belonging, develop agency, and show what’s possible through collective action. 

Key Findings & Recommendations 

  1. The disaffected tend to be younger, have fewer resources, and are more likely to experience systemic inequities and institutional failures. Our findings suggest they represent roughly 35% of all adults  — nearly 85 million Americans.
  1. Frustration is the most prominent sentiment about elections and politics, affecting efficacy and perceptions of power. Despite feeling more isolated, 58% still indicated a desire to be connected to community, and community offers hope. 
  1. Belonging is the strongest predictor of participation among the disaffected. People who feel a stronger sense of belonging are 25% more likely to vote in this year’s election.

The disaffected electorate is NOT unreachable. They are more likely to act when they feel like they belong and can see the tangible impact of their actions. This work happens through civic homes — trusted spaces where people feel heard, valued, and connected to real pathways for addressing their concerns through collective action.

Related Research

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Black Values Research 2024
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ACE led this research to support its organizing efforts. It is using the findings as it trains organizers and canvassers to reach eligible voters across Arizona. The findings will help organizers build a strong sense of community among Latino voters and ensure that outreach is done in meaningful ways.
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Asian American Values: State-Based Research in North Carolina
This research project with North Carolina Asian Americans Together anchored itself in state-based, community-led efforts to better understand the complexity of values and identities that exists within the Asian American community.